Creating a better future

The One Degree War

Last week I was fortunate enough to attend the last Green Capital event for 2009. I have been to dozens of Climate Change and Sustainability events this year and it is easy for me to get the glazed over look when someone puts up a slide of the usual climate change graph, the polar caps melting and that all to cliché photo of a polar bear or penguin.

So it was really refreshing to hear a total different presentation from Paul Gilding who happens to be very well qualified to talk on the topic of Climate Change. Now Paul and a colleague and author Jorgen Randers have just released a paper called the One Degree War Plan. Now it sounds quite dramatic when I first heard the title, but Paul went on to explain that as a species we are “slow but not stupid” (now given recent political events I think he may also have a case for putting some people in the “stupid” basket as well)

But I still needed convincing, isn’t waiting till we declare a war like raising the white flag now?

Paul went on to explain that in history when the time came to act we did so quickly and went on to explain certain events around WWII such as the invasion of Poland and Pearl Harbor where whole countries, continents and eventually the world mobilised overnight to meet a common threat. Laws were passed governments swung into action; debate was over, skeptics and pacifists where pushed aside and we got on with the job.

So could the analogy of WWII be our response to climate change? Are we really going to let it get that bad before we really act?

I do recommend that you take the time to read this paper as it is well thought out and provides an interesting insight into what might happen in the future. The question I really want to know is what will it take? Will it take a Pearl Harbor or was that Hurricane Katrina which we have forgotten about. When will it happen? Those answers are not yet in but the rough estimate in the paper is somewhere around 2018.

Please click here to download the Paper and please feel free to let me know your thoughts and comments.

Tags: Green Capital, Jorgen Randers, One Degree War, Paul Gilding

0 members like this

Add a Comment

You need to be a member of Change2 to add comments!

Join Change2

Comment by Lee Stewart on December 10, 2009 at 9:16am: Thanks for your comments, Nic I agree there is some really excellent work going on and the lack of political will is disappointing. AJ great analogy, I cringe at the thought of 50 years of Hollywood movies about how the US saved the world!

Comment by Nic Moodie on December 9, 2009 at 3:24pm: Glad you enjoyed the session Lee.
There certainly does seems to be a large gap between current policy responses and the risk implications of the science. A 50/50 chance of avoiding a 2 degree temperature increase sounds like a very badly thought out game of russian roulette. Its good to see some quality work being done on emergency mitigation senarios. Not just Paul's paper but also the excellent work being done by UNSW on emergency mitigation senarios and Safe Climate Australia. I know i dont want to go to war, but there is a clear lack of political will at present and our window of opportunity is closing.

Comment by AJ Jack on December 9, 2009 at 3:15pm: If the analogy is with WWII then the Americans won't participate until the fight is nearly over, and then spend the next 50 years making movies about how they saved the world.