Estimating Sea-Level Extremes in an Uncertain Future

A continuing rise in sea level will be one of the major impacts of climate change. More than 80 per cent of Australians currently live in the coastal fringes on the east and southwest of the continent. Around a quarter of Australia’s population growth is occurring within three kilometres of the coast.

A significant proportion of Australia’s population will experience the impacts of a changing climate through rising sea levels, increased coastal erosion and extreme flooding events. Infrastructure owners and planners need to be able to assess the likely risk to existing assets and to plan appropriately when building new coastal assets.

The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) has responded to this need, by developing a method of determining the likely impact of future sea-level rise on coastal assets. The technique statistically combines recorded variations in today’s sea level (through tides, storms, and other meteorological events) with internationally-accepted projections of future sea-level rise.

The analysis provides estimates of the probability that a given asset will be flooded by the sea during its lifetime, under different climate projections. It will help planners, engineers and policymakers to make more informed decisions concerning the maintenance and planning of infrastructure around Australia’s coastline, enabling coastal communities to develop appropriate strategies for adaptating to the impacts of sea level rise.